Complex Climates: The Paris Climate Agreement
The Paris Climate Agreement:
The Paris Climate Agreement (hereafter referred to as ‘the Agreement’) is a first-of-its-kind international treaty created to limit the future impacts of human-caused climate change while considering the realities and needs of modern society. After nearly eight long years of negotiations, The Agreement was adopted by 196 nations in December 2015 at the 2015 Conference of the Parties in Paris, France. The Agreement represents a profound step towards reducing fossil fuel emissions and thus retaining our only habitable planet. Beyond climate change, it symbolized a collective commitment to work as an international community toward achieving lasting peace and prosperity.
The Agreement's primary goal is to limit “the increase in global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels” while trying to “limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.” This 1.5°C threshold, set by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and referenced in my first article, represents a critical tipping point for the global climate system. Many scientists warn that exceeding this threshold could trigger self-reinforcing feedback loops, driving the climate system and global warming beyond our ability to manage.
While there is undoubtedly more to the Agreement than what I have outlined below, the following concepts and the understanding of developed vs. developing nations should be enough for anyone to have a basic knowledge of the Paris Climate Agreement.
Key Concepts of the Paris Climate Agreement
1. Temperature Goal:
“Holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, recognizing that this would significantly reduce the risks of and impacts of climate change” (Paris Agreement, 2015, p. 3).
The 1.5°C threshold represents a critical tipping point for global climate change. Scientists worldwide cannot emphasize enough that staying within this limit will significantly reduce the severity of climate-related impacts, such as an increase in extreme weather events, biodiversity loss, and rising sea levels. If we are to exceed 1.5°C, it may trigger dangerous feedback loops that will further accelerate global warming and our planet's sixth great extinction event.
Once we cross this threshold, vulnerable communities will face threats that include but are not limited to displacement, food insecurity, and loss of life. While staying below 1.5°C will be a global challenge, it is necessary if we wish to prevent a proverbial flood of irreversible changes that would destabilize human society as we know it.
For added context, 2024 was the first year where the global average annual temperature exceeded 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. That is not to say that we have officially crossed the point of no return, but we are certainly close.
2. Peaking Emissions:
“In order to achieve the long-term temperature goal set out in Article 2 [well below 2°C], Parties [countries] aim to reach global peaking of greenhouse gas emissions as soon as possible, recognizing that peaking will take longer for developing country Parties, and to undertake rapid reductions thereafter in accordance with best available science, so as to achieve a balance between anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks of greenhouse gases in the second half of this century, on the basis of equity, and in the context of sustainable development and efforts to eradicate poverty.” (Paris Agreement, 2015, p. 4).
‘Peaking emissions’ means that countries should soon reach a point where greenhouse gas emissions stop rising and decrease in the following years. When the Agreement was first adopted in 2015, it stated that countries should, in their best efforts, try to ‘peak’ emissions “as soon as possible,” depending on their individual needs and capabilities.
However, in the years since, many scientists have begun to raise alarms that countries, primarily the large emitter countries, need to try and peak in 2025 if we want to limit heating to below 2°C, especially if we expect to stay below 1.5°C. Thus, this year is critical for climate action, climate policy, and humanity as a whole.
3. Adaptation, Mitigation, and Loss and Damage
“Parties recognize that adaptation is a global challenge faced by all with local, subnational, national, regional and international dimensions, and that it is a key component of and makes a contribution to the long-term global response to climate change to protect people, livelihoods and ecosystems, taking into account the urgent and immediate needs of those developing country Parties that are particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change.” (Paris Agreement, 2015, p. 9).
Adaptation: Efforts taken by countries to adjust to the impacts of climate change that are presently happening or unavoidable in the near future. The Agreement emphasizes the protection of human lives, infrastructure, ecosystems, and economies from climate threats. It encourages countries to enhance adaptation efforts, specifically focusing on developing nations, as they have often contributed very little to greenhouse gas emissions. Yet, they are generally the most at risk of climate-related damage and have less capacity to cope with these disasters.
Mitigation: Efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to prevent further global warming. Developed nations are expected to lead mitigation efforts, while all countries should aim to reduce emissions wherever possible. They must all submit their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) that outline emission goals. (See “Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs)” below.)
Loss and Damage: The Agreement recognizes that many communities are already experiencing the impacts of climate change and that some future impacts cannot be prevented or stopped, particularly in vulnerable communities. As a result, these communities are expected to face irreparable damage and loss of life. Developed nations are expected to provide support to manage these losses, as they have historically been the largest greenhouse gas emitters.
4. Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs)
“As nationally determined contributions to the global response to climate change, all Parties are to undertake and communicate ambitious efforts as defined in . . . The efforts of all Parties will represent a progression over time, while recognizing the need to support developing country Parties for the effective implementation of this Agreement.” (Paris Agreement, 2015, p. 3).
NDCs are designed to empower individual nations to take ownership of their emission reduction targets by developing plans that best suit their own needs and capabilities. By design, the goals are voluntary, with no penalties for those failing to meet them. This way, the focus is on global cooperation and progress rather than inflicting punitive measures.
These goals are expected to be updated at least every five years, with each new goal “reflect[ing] its highest possible ambition,” meaning that nations are expected to adopt more aggressive emission reduction policies over time.
Additionally, a “Global Stocktake” occurs every five years to assess which nations have met their previously stated goals.
5. Climate Financing
“Parties recognize the importance of integrated, holistic and balanced non-market approaches being available to Parties to assist in the implementation of their nationally determined contributions, in the context of sustainable development and poverty eradication, in a coordinated and effective manner, including through, inter alia, mitigation, adaptation, finance, technology transfer, and capacity building, as appropriate.” (Paris Agreement, 2015, p. 8).
Essentially, developed nations are expected to assist developing countries in their attempt to reach their NDC goals.
Discussed in depth more below in “Common but Differentiated Responsibilities”
Common but Differentiated Responsibilities
A key component of the Agreement is the concept of ‘Common but Differentiated Responsibilities’ (CBDRs). This common underlying theme acknowledges the different needs, economic standings, and capabilities of all the nations involved. Essentially, it is a basic understanding that all countries are different, resulting in widely varying economies. The Agreement classifies nations as either developed or developing nations.
Developed nations such as the United States, countries within the European Union, and others have already undergone significant economic development, often through an industrial revolution powered by the burning of fossil fuels. As a result, these nations have historically been responsible for a disproportionate amount of global greenhouse gas emissions. In particular, the United States has emitted far more greenhouse gasses into the atmosphere than any other country over the last few centuries. Since developed nations have reaped the benefits of industrialization and modern economies, they are expected to take on more ‘ambitious’ roles in their efforts to reduce emissions. Additionally, developed nations are expected to provide climate financing and support for the climate adaptation needs of developing nations.
Developing nations are viewed as having emerging economies that face more significant challenges, placing them in a lower economic standing than developed nations. As stated earlier, most of these nations face a more substantial and immediate threat from the impacts of climate change, such as extreme weather events, flooding, and food insecurity. Additionally, circumstances found in developing nations, such as extreme poverty, insufficient infrastructure, and limited natural resources, make it extremely difficult for these nations to reduce emissions at the same rate as developed nations while they try to modernize their economy. This is why the principle of CBDRs is necessary for the success of the Agreement: developing nations are expected to continue growing their economies, often through the use of fossil fuels, with the understanding that they will transition to cleaner energy practices and emissions reductions as they gain the capacity to do so.
Economically, the Agreement is designed to benefit all nations involved, with developed nations being well-positioned to make significant economic gains from emerging economies in clean energy, electric vehicles, green infrastructure, and other climate solution-based industries. As the global demand for these sustainable practices increases, developed countries that choose to invest in green innovations will be advantageously situated as the key players in global green markets. The nations that establish themselves as the international leaders in climate-based solutions will not only create a cleaner planet for the future, but they will also have access to an increasing number of new clients worldwide as developing nations move towards adopting renewable energy solutions, improved infrastructure, and implementing climate-adaptation strategies. The transition toward a low-carbon economy represents far more than a shift away from fossil fuels; it represents enormous economic opportunities for nations with the wherewithal to take advantage of the current global movement.
In closing, the Paris Climate Agreement represents far more than just a treaty to address climate change; it fosters global collaboration that offers mutual benefits for all nations. Developing countries can modernize their economies with the support and technology transfer from developed nations, while developed countries stand to gain by leading the transition towards a sustainable, green economy, driving innovation, and opening new markets. Together, the collective effort of the Paris Climate Agreement paves the way for a more prosperous, resilient, and environmentally sustainable future for all.
In my next article, I will discuss how the United States went from a global leader in this emerging economy to the only nation opting to withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement and how that impacts our geopolitical positioning.
Sources:
The Paris Climate Agreement: https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/english_paris_agreement.pdf
IPCC Special Report on 1.5°C: https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/